Food shippers are entering one of the most consequential freight years since the early COVID era, but this time, the disruption is visible months in advance. According to the 2026 Market Forecast developed by our team at Dynamic Logistix, the industry faces the largest driver-capacity purge in modern trucking history, accelerated regulatory enforcement, and a record surge in theft and fraud.

1. Driver Losses Will Reshape Temperature-Controlled Capacity

The forecast projects 10–13% of the U.S. driver pool may exit within 2–3 years due to a combination of English Language Proficiency violations, safety enforcement, and non-domiciled CDL actions.

• Up to 500,000 drivers could be removed through tightening CDL scrutiny.
• Spot and contract rates in van and reefer could climb 5–6% YOY by late 2026.
• OTIF chargebacks are expected to rise 3–5%, driven by missed appointments and detention from less-compliant carriers falling out of routing guides.
  

2. Regulatory Pressure Will Increase Shipper Liability

2026 marks the first time federal regulators are formally shifting “duty of care” onto shippers for carrier selection compliance.

The Market Forecast notes:

• Proposed national safety-selection standards could bring $5,000–$25,000+ fines per violation for using unverified or unsafe carriers.
• Shippers may face heightened insurance scrutiny and legal exposure in cases involving improperly vetted carriers.

For food shippers, carrier qualification must be both continuous, not a one-time onboarding event.

3. Cargo Theft, Fraud & Double-Brokering Are Hitting Food Freight Hardest

Cargo theft surged 27% in 2024, with total losses surpassing $1 billion and the average theft exceeding $200,000 and double-broker complaints have risen 400% during the same period.

Food and beverage freight is one of the top five targeted commodities, alongside produce and meat, because it is:

• Perishable
• High-value
• Easily resold
• Commonly shipped under tight timing (making fraud harder to detect quickly)

Theft doesn’t just create loss; it creates risk. Risk of losing retailer shelf space, risk of QA investigations and risk of product recalls.

4. Seasonality Will Intensify for Produce, Protein & Frozen Networks

DLX’s vertical analysis highlights sharper seasonal swings in 2026 for:

• Produce: Region-specific, high-pressure cycle shifts that, when mismanaged, can trigger plant downtime and rejected loads.
• Meat & Protein: Year-round demand with holiday surges and strict temperature/OTIF requirements, making these loads prime fraud targets.
• Frozen/CPG: Increased scrutiny on appointment accuracy and claims due to higher replacement costs.

5. The Food Shipper Playbook for 2026 Must Change

The Market Forecast makes the takeaway unmistakable: “Shippers who modernize tech and compliance practices will gain durable advantage over those who don’t.”

Learn More in the Full 2026 Market Forecast

If you want a deeper dive into the data, regulatory impacts, risk trends, and actions you can take now to shape the year ahead, you can read the full 2026 Market Forecast. It’s designed to help food shippers navigate this complex market with clarity, confidence, and a strategy built for what’s coming next.

About DLX

Dynamic Logistix is a third-party provider of food shipping and freight solutions that combines a world-class technology platform with stellar personal service. By providing superior visibility, transparent processes, and comprehensive real-time reporting through our transportation management software, food shipping clients save time and money. For more information, please visit our website and check out our LinkedIn page to join our growing team.

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